The Canyon Was For the Camera

B-2 Spirit bomber

A while back I came across Top Gun: Maverick on television. (No surprise there.) It was the part where they just started the canyon run. I started thinking about how the mission could have been handled better and with less risk to equipment and pilots. 

The excuse given for the tactics they used was that there were GPS jammers surrounding the target so they couldn't use smart munitions. That's not totally true (more on that later). 

I started talking to Grok about it. I first asked why they used F/A-18 Super Hornets instead of fifth-generation fighters. Grok said it was because of the demands of making the movie. There are no two-seater fifth-generation fighter aircraft. Since the Super Hornet has a back seat, they could put the actors there and have a real pilot fly the plane, making it look more realistic. 

Then I, with Grok's help, came up with a better plan to destroy the target.

First of all, you need to use EA-18 Growlers to jam the anti-aircraft missile batteries and then use anti-radiation missiles (AGM-88 HARM or AGM-88E AARGM) to do DEAD (Destruction of Enemy Air Defenses). They likely didn't do this in the movie to make it more exciting.

Then launch Tomahawk missiles at the GPS jammers. Tomahawks don't use GPS but use inertial navigation plus terrain mapping to find their target. According to Grok, they've been doing that since the 1980s. Or use F-35C Lightning fifth-generation fighters to attack the jammers with stand-off missiles while remaining outside the anti-aircraft missiles' envelope.

(Technically you could use Tomahawks to do the whole mission since they don't use GPS and can hit very precisely.) 

Keep some F-35C Lightning fighters lurking about in case the enemy brings in jets of their own.  

Once the GPS jammers are gone, fly B-2 Spirit bombers over the site at altitude (as high as 40,000 feet; safe from any remaining anti-aircraft missiles) and hit them with Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bombs to destroy the target. The MOPs do use GPS but have inertial backup, too. And the mission is completed without the dangerous flying in the movie.

Problems: B-2s live at Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri. They would have to take off many hours before the strike (something like 15 hours before assuming the foreign country is somewhere near Iran) yet be over the target at the right time: within minutes of the DEAD being completed. That would include in-air refueling and rest periods for pilots. Operation Midnight Hammer (June 22, 2025) had all these logistic problems except for the precise timing component. 

Spies for the foreign country could see the B-2s take off and have plenty of time to tell their bosses that something was up. The enemy country could have its fifth-generation fighters around to fight off our F-35C Lightning fighters. If the enemy nation is flying Russian SU-57 fighters, they have a service ceiling of over 61,000 feet. They could conceivably attack the B-2s but odds are they won't be able to find them with their radar. The mission would have to be moved to night time to keep the B-2s from being spotted by the Mk I eyeball. 

Also, this would have to be a joint Navy and Air Force operation. Then you get into politics of the inter-service rivalries. Also, two chain of commands increase the possibility of a leak somewhere. 

This operation would not put lives and equipment in as much risk as they did in the movie. Of course everyone lived because it was a movie. But it wouldn't be nearly as exciting as the Death Star trench run that they did.

Dream Building Part 2

Elevators. Why did it have to be elevators?

I have recurring dreams a lot. There's one place I tend to dream about over and over. It's not the dream building my mind made up; it's a very real place. It's Semiahmoo Resort in Blaine, Washington. I used to go there every year for a conference and I've stayed there a few other times when traveling. It's a very nice place and I like it a lot. However, like other elevators in my dreams, the elevator there doesn't work right when I dream about it. 

Most recently in a dream I was attending a seminar or conference is a hotel across Semiahmoo's parking lot from Semiahmoo. There is no other hotel there in reality. The seminar took a break and I was looking for a bathroom (a common theme in my dreams). I couldn't find one in that hotel so I went across the parking lot to Semiahmoo and looked for a bathroom. (I should have taken this as a hint I needed to wake up and go to the bathroom. But I didn't.) I couldn't find a bathroom there, either (a common dream happening) and, of course, the elevator didn't work. 

I got frustrated and sat down at a table in the lobby. A woman put a plate with a pasta dish on it in front of me. I said, "I'm not staying here." She got angry, took the plate, and threw away the food in a trash can that just happened to be right there. 

In reality, Semiahmoo's lobby isn't that big but it has some nice places to sit in other rooms.

About that time I woke up and realized I desperately needed to go to the bathroom. It was 2:30am, about.

Why do I dream about Semiahmoo so much? I have no idea. Why does the elevator never work? I have no idea. 

Do you have reoccurring places in your dreams, real or not? Let me know in the comments below.

University of Washington Huskies' Season Preview

I forgot to do my pre-season post about my beloved University of Washington Huskies college football team and now they've already played two games! And least they won them (the Apple Cup, the first game of the season, was ugly but a win; the second game against Utah State was uglier but a win). 

Once the non-conference games are done (and I hope, won), the Huskies face a daunting Big Ten schedule. 

On October 3rd the Huskies play USC. Currently ranked #12 on the AP top 25 (the Huskies are unranked after that Utah State game), we play them in the Colosseum: their home turf. It's going to be a tough place to win but we've beaten USC before when we were the underdogs.

On Halloween, we play Nebraska in Lincoln. Another difficult away game.

On November 21st we play last year's college football champions, Indiana. At least it's a home game and Indiana lost a lot of good players to the NFL last year. We'll see how Indiana does this year. They are currently ranked #4 on the AP poll.

And the last game of the season (at least since joining the Big Ten) is always Oregon. This year we're playing in Eugene. Oregon is ranked #21 in the AP poll after losing to Oklahoma State. We always play hated Oregon that is basically (because of Phil Knight's money) an NFL team in college football. Yet, they've yet to win a national championship which makes me happy.

I saw one pundit say the Huskies will go 10-2 in the regular season, losing only to USC and Oregon. Others say 8-4 which is the same as last year's regular season. If we can win a couple of those hard games, we could have a great record this year. We'll have to see.

The Huskies' next game is Eastern Washington, an FCS team. So they'd better win that, too. 

Post-Apocalyptic Driving

Tesla Model S EV

I was watching Zombieland the other day (mostly) because it's funny (mostly). But it makes a mistake almost every post-apocalyptic movie makes: people driving cars. 

(Zombieland also has electricity and I don't know how that was supposed to happen.)

The problem with cars in a post-apocalyptic environment is that gasoline has a shelf life. I asked Grok about this and it said that gasoline has an approximate three-month shelf life without additives due to oxidation. If you do add stabilizers, it can last up to two years but in a post-apocalyptic environment, who's going to do that?

Diesel is a little better. If it's stored properly it can last up to twelve months and with stabilizers up to two years. 

Gasoline and diesel don't suddenly go bad. They degrade over time. Eventually, they won't work.

So how can people drive cars after the apocalypse? I had an idea:

Propane! Good old C3H8. It's a hydrocarbon and it's flammable.

According to Grok, propane if properly stored has a near-infinite shelf life. You could convert cars to run on propane but also according to Grok, it's very technical. Finding the parts might be difficult, especially if you have to walk everywhere (better do it before the gasoline goes bad).

I had another idea: electric cars. There are electric generators that run on propane. According to Grok, the largest propane generators are industrial and in that case, you're limited by how fast the car can charge. But that's also very technical as you'd need transformers, switchgear, and a high DC charger. Grok says, "It's not plug and play." 

With a 30 kW home standby generator (like these), it would take about four hours to charge up a 100 kWh battery. (It doesn't take 3.3 hours because of inefficiencies in the system.) And it would be a lot simpler set up. Hook the power to a Level 1 or Level 2 home charger and it would do the work. Pretty simple. Depending on the car, you can get 300 miles out of a 100 kWh battery (in good weather; lithium-ion batteries lose range in both hot and cold weather). You could do that until the batteries in the car give out or you run out of propane.

What do you think? Would propane work for post-apocalyptic commuting? Let me know in the comments below.

Car Review: 2017 Ford Escape

My mother owns a red 2017 Ford Escape small SUV. I drove it to Seattle and around Seattle and then back home. Here are my impressions.

It cornered much better than I thought it would. It also had enough power for every-day driving. I was accelerating out of a rest stop and the sun was in my eyes so I couldn't read the speedometer until I put down the visor and I saw I was doing 80 mph (in a 70 mph zone). I was surprised. It had some luxury features including Apple CarPlay (if you plugged your phone in), automatic headlights, seat memory, duel climate controls, and power lift gate. It had intuitive, adaptive cruise control. I don't know what trim it was (S, SE, or Titanium) but I suspect it was at least SE with those features.

However, it didn't ride very well. You felt every bump and flaw in the road (and on Seattle roads, there are plenty). Whoever designed the interior front doors must have gone to the Marquis de Sade school of Engineering. There were two sharp, hard points that either my left knee hit or the left side of my calf hit. I was literally left with bruises. This wasn't just in corners; it was constant. I put a small, flat facial tissue box between my knee and the door and that helped the knee at least.

When I looked under the hood I could see almost no metal, only plastic. The battery is set perpendicular against the firewall with a plastic cover on it. When you remove the cover you can only see the positive terminal. To jump it there's buried deep a metal stud that connects to the negative terminal. This design may have been efficient to build but it's hard to work with.

It was small enough that it was easy to park and get around in tight parking lots (which seems to be the rule in Seattle). It is an acceptable vehicle, if it just didn't bruise my knee and calf.

Dream Building

It happened again recently: I dreamed about a building in Seattle that doesn't exist. Apparently, my brain made it up.

It's white boxy building just south of the I-90 and I-5 interchange and west of I-5. It's a transportation hub. There are light rail tracks on the bottom floor (which may be underground) and the upper floors have bus terminals on various levels.  However, there's no ramps for the buses to get in or out of the building. So how do they? I have no idea.

In one dream there was a big screen on the first floor showing which bus or light rail to take to where you wanted to go. Since you can't read in dreams, I couldn't figure it out.

The strange thing is, this non-existent building has appeared in my dreams many times. It's not a very clever building as it's just a white box. It seems whenever I dream about Seattle, there's that building and I always get lost in it.

Interestingly, a "white box building" is "In commercial real estate and construction, a white box (or "vanilla shell") is a partially finished commercial space. It serves as a blank canvas ready for a tenant's custom fit-out," according to Google AI.

But that's not the point of this post. What is the point? Well, for one, I apparently can't imagine anything better than a white box. Guess I wasn't born to be an architect. And I always get lost in it. I don't know why.

Do you dream of things that don't exist? Do you dream repeatedly about them? Let me know in the comments below.

Bad Math

I saw this story about music having fewer explicit lyrics recently. Which I found somewhat interesting and should make Tipper Gore happy. That, however, was not what caught my eye. 

According the the story's headline: "The percentage of explicit songs on Spotify’s Top 50 chart has fallen from 74% in 2018 to 13% today."

And I thought "Thirteen percent of fifty is not an integer." Seventy-four percent of fifty is 37. But thirteen percent of fifty is 6.5. So was one song only half explicit?

At first I thought this was a case of dumbing the math down for a mass audience. The number of songs with explicit lyrics was either 6 or 7, I assumed. Then I did the math. What is strange is that 6 songs would be 12% and 7 songs would be 14%. So how did they come up with 13% or six and a half songs? I don't know. I suspect bad math. Maybe the author didn't know how to compute percentages correctly. 

Have you seen example of bad math in the media? Let me know in the comments below.